Eagle Projects

Species Distribution Prediction SEED proposal

Researchers: Forrest Hoffman, Bill Hargrove

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Using Eagle, we are creating a series of ecoregionalizations for the conterminous US based on 25 environmental characteristics. Each characteristic is really a map of the US at 1 km2 resolution, containing over 7.8 million cells. Thus, the data set is 25 times this size. We have produced a series of maps showing the 10, 50, 100, and 1000 most different regions within the US in terms of these 25 variables. Now we are working on maps with 500 and 1500 regions of similarity. These map products will be of great interest to the ecological community. results shown at SC2000

We have also used Eagle to make sequential geographic range predictions for loblolly pine and sugar maple under a simple climate warming scenario in which mean, minimum and maximum annual temperature are increased in a geographically uniform manner. The projections are dire; both of these tree species become extinct when ambient temperatures are increased by 4 degrees C. We were surprised to see a generalized evaporation of the geographic range of these two species rather than a northward migration with increased warming. We were particularly surprised to see instances where highly productive geographic "islands" were present within a "sea" of locations classified as unsuitable. One would expect a gradually decreasing fitness or productivity, as combinations slowly reduced in suitability, rather than an abrupt changeover from highly suitable to unsuitable. In preparation for an OBER proposal, we are now using Eagle to further clarify these dire predictions by discriminating geographic regions where forecasting is not possible from those where these tree species cannot grow.

More info on this project: http://research.esd.ornl.gov/~hnw/esri99 and http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/upload/5/index.html